A Bayesian Inference Reliability Evaluation on the Corrosion-Affected Underground High-Voltage Power Grid

The underground high-voltage power transmission cables are high value engineering assets that suffer from multiple deteriorations through-out life cycles. Recent studies identified a new failure mode – the pitting corrosion deterioration on layer of phosphor bronze reinforcing tape, which protects oil-filled oil leakage due to leads heath. Two models estimating tape were established separately in this study. first model, based mathematical fitting, is generated using replacement priority model supply industry. This considered as an empirical-based model. second fatigue mechanism, utilizes information pit depth distribution and concept pit-to-crack transfer probability. Bayesian inference approach conjunction algorithm update existing probability (PoF) with newly modes. Through algorithm, integrated PoF contains more comprehensive background while maintaining empirical knowledge assets’ performance.